Delta variant likely gives market "transitory panic" in July. S&P 500 rally +100 to 4,400 then end month at 4,300

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STRATEGY: Delta variant likely gives market "transitory panic" in July.  S&P 500 rally +100 to 4,400 then end month flat?

So far, US COVID-19 cases are not following the parabolic surge seen in the UK.  Case trends are rising and evidenced by simply looking at the table below.  Many states are seeing a rise in cases.  The mRNA vaccines are shown to be effective against the Delta variant, so low vaccination rates/ unvaccinated Americans will be the ones vulnerable:

- our central case is that 10-15 states might seen a parabolic rise in cases in new few weeks
- this would mirror the linear rise in UK, then a sudden parabolic rise
- but we do not expect this to lead to lockdowns
- this will be likely result in a renewed surge in vaccinations

The video in this report is only accessible to members


The video in this report is only accessible to members
The positivity rate is now 2.2% and rising.  It had fallen to sub-2% for many weeks and is now curling upwards.  This is surely a sign that Delta variant, or the virus itself, is finding new individuals to infect.  But again, we are not panicking here.  The vaccination rates are higher in the US than many places in the world.  And the penetrati...

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