We are now into the third week of the Russo-Ukrainian War and prospects for a quick resolution appear increasingly dim, although we like most of the world, hope for peaceful resolutions as soon as possible. Talks between the Russian and Ukrainian foreign minister broke down yesterday morning, and while there may still be hopes from the Belarussian negotiation track, rhetoric and actions by Russia appear to suggest they aim to escalate the violence and targeting of civilians to break the Ukrainian will to resist.

Markets continue to try to stabilize and rallied on some positive comments from Putin on negotiations this morning. Treasury Secretary Yellen recently told the press that the US may have to endure high prices for a year. CPI numbers yesterday were the highest since 1982 and the effects of the war have not yet made its way into the numbers. Remember though, you must adjust for inflation when deciphering what effect headline prices will have on consumer wallet. Take our recent analysis on oil prices below as a key consideration. The reason commodities sap growth is because they occupy greater portions of consumer wallet, and at least so far, the “wallet-burden” has not eclipsed prior problematic levels.

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The effects of the war itself will interrupt production,...

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