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LOOKS LIKE A PAUSE The Federal Reserve approved its 10th interest rate increase in just over a year, raising the Fed funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to a target range of 5%-5.25%. Many interpreted the Fed's comments as signaling a potential pause in the tightening cycle, mainly due to the removal of a sentence in the post-meeting statement. The statement no longer mentioned that "the Committee anticipates that some...
The NDQ has slid 0.3% on Monday as investors anticipate corporate earnings reports from major tech companies, while the SPX is effectively flat. Investors are closely watching for earnings results from mega-cap tech firms, including Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, marking the halfway point of the earnings season. Both BTC -2.20% and ETH -0.92% are moving lower in concert with major equity indices, and most altcoins, including MATIC -3.47% and SOL -6.28% , are following...
ETH MOVING SHANGHIGHER As we mentioned last week, the market was overly pessimistic regarding the supply-side effects of the upcoming Ethereum staking withdrawals. Factors such as existing liquidity for most stakers, withdrawal queue limitations, and a market that de-risked in anticipation of the Shapella upgrade all helped to reduce the likelihood of a sudden supply overhang. With this in mind, it seemed reasonable to expect an ETHBTC rally in the...
SHAPELLA ARRIVES We are now less than a week away from staking withdrawals being enabled on the Ethereum network. We have been discussing this topic frequently throughout our research, but to reiterate, we maintain that the market is overly pessimistic about the supply-side effects of this event. To reiterate the key points behind our rationale:LIQUIDITY ACCESS FOR MOST STAKERS: Approximately 60% of the staked ETH is through liquid staking providers...
BOND VOLATILITY MOVING LOWER IS GOOD FOR LIQUIDITY Over the past few weeks, we have discussed how the ongoing banking crisis, the Fed's language shift and easing monetary policies from major central banks have led to increased net liquidity in the U.S. and higher global USD liquidity. _Source: Bloomberg, Fundstrat_ One risk that these absolute liquidity levels face is a negation by the Fed’s reverse repo facility. The Reverse Repo...
DOVISH FED STATEMENT On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised the target Fed Funds rate range by 25 basis points (BPS), marking the ninth increase in just over a year. The FOMC statement hinted at a nearing end to rate hikes by removing the reference to "ongoing increases." According to the FOMC's updated forecast, there will be one more rate increase this year, and officials expect slower economic growth in 2023...
It is another wildly consequential week in global markets as the worldwide banking system continues to fend off liquidity concerns, and traders brace for a decision from the Fed on interest rates following their meeting on Wednesday. Bitcoin is coming off one of its best weeks in history, closing the week up 35% and moving north of $28k for the first time since last June. This afternoon, BTC -2.20% (+0.4%) is...
IT MIGHT NOT “TECHNICALLY” BE QE, BUT QT IS OVER A common refrain among Bitcoin advocates has been “short the banks, long BTC.” Over the past couple of weeks, we have seen the closest manifestation of this trade since the inception of the Bitcoin network. There remain apparent concerns about the health of the US banking system, specifically related to the duration mismatch issues plaguing traditional banking institutions and depositors'...
MOST SIGNIFICANT BANKING FAILURE SINCE THE GFC Our clients know the rationale behind our bullish perspective on crypto this year. Consumer prices are broadly trending lower, peak-tightening occurred last year (on a rate-of-change basis), and global liquidity conditions have been more favorable than many anticipated. We also felt comfortable that most of the “forced selling” from market participants exiting the ecosystem was behind us. Unfortunately, over the past few weeks,...
Fundstrat’s recently launched Crypto Core Strategy offers subscribers a digestible tool to manage their crypto portfolio, with the goal of outperforming bitcoin. For those looking to amplify the returns of their long positions, this complementary issue of DeFi Digest strives to cast light on some of the best risk-adjusted yields. We first describe our methodology to filter for yield opportunities, then dive into the protocols offering the yields, and describe...
