First Word

Nov Core PCE Friday am could be positive catalyst for "Santa Clause" rally. PS: S&P 500 valuation not expensive. ex-FAANG P/E 15.3X.

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

We discuss: how S&P 500 valuation is very reasonable as we enter 2024 and this is particularly notable when compared to the 2022 market peak.

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (Duration: 4:20).

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

2023 is rapidly coming to a close with a mere 5 trading days left. Two important economic releases come Friday, the Nov Core PCE deflator (Street +0.20% MoM) and U Mich Dec final 1-yr inflation (3.1% consensus).

While some might not put weight on Core PCE because 85% of it can be modeled from Nov CPI report, keep in mind this is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. And if this is a good report (below consensus), would solidify the market's thinking around inflation falling like a rock. Tireless Ken, our head of data science, is modelling +0.07% for Core PCE MoM, below Street of +0.20% and YoY would be 3.24%. These would be seen as solid beats, and in our view, likely to trigger some buying by skeptical investors. This is arguably moreso the case given stocks took a beating on Wednesday afternoon. The causes of that sell-off are not known, but good economic data on Friday could strengthen the year-end rally. Generally, we expect equities to strengthen into YE over the next 5 trad...

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