First Word

YTD, 65% of large-cap fund managers trailing but only 47% of small-cap funds missing. Add to YE chase potential. Important data is Nov PCE on Friday 12/22.

The video in this report is only accessible to members

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

We discuss: It's holiday party season and we spoke to many institutional investors over the weekend.  Anecdotally, 66% remain bearish with bearish views on Fed. Plus we analyze fund manager performance.

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (Duration: 4:56).

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

Over the various holiday cocktail parties in the past week, anecdotally, I find most institutional investors remain cautious, mainly because the takeaway for many of the Dec FOMC is "Fed sees something that we don't and that explains their dovish pivot."

Foremost, that statement above reflects a bearish perspective, which many investors have anchored to at the start of the year. At the start of 2023, many believed the Fed was in for a decade of inflation fighting ala 1970s-80s and thus, stocks could not sustain any gains until inflation was defeated. And many state that stocks fall on the first rate cut. That is true only if this was a normal monetary cycle, but that is not the case. Instead, inflation has fallen "like a rock" this year and long-term interest rates have sniffed out a far faster path of normalization than many expected. So to me, there remains an anchoring bias in those with a bearish take on Dec...

Unlock this article with a FREE 30-Day Trial!

An FSI Pro, or FSI Macro subscription is required in order to access this content.

*Free trial available only on a monthly plan

More from the author

Disclosures (show)

Get invaluable analysis of the market and stocks. Cancel at any time. Start Free Trial

Articles Read 2/2

🎁 Unlock 1 extra article by joining our Community!

You’ve reached your limit of 2 free monthly articles. Please enter your email to unlock 1 more articles.

Already have an account? Sign In

Want to receive Regular Market Updates to your Inbox?

I am your default error :)