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Happy Easter and/or Passover to all who are celebrating !!

Near-term trends in US Equities remain bullish, and it’s thought that rallies back to SPX-4175-4200 might be possible into early next week ahead of any major stalling out.

Large-Cap Technology has taken the lead to drive Thursday’s outperformance ahead of the long holiday weekend.  While Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls data seems like an important data point, the near-term trend looks likely to push back to marginal new weekly highs ahead of a possible mid-to-late April peak.

Bond yields have continued to drift lower and $TNX, $TYX have both broken monthly support levels which had held in recent months.  As I discussed last week, the positioning never truly caught up with the rapid rally in Treasuries immediately following the Banking crisis.  Despite a 70 bp drop in TNX over the last few months, CFTC data still showed non-Commercial Treasuries positioning as being negative as of most recent data from 3/23/23.  Cycle composites show lower yields into May before an abrupt about-face back higher.

Short-term gauges of sentiment have begun to turn less pessimistic following three weeks of Equity rally for US stocks, as might be expected.  I...

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