Equity markets bank into "bunker mode" in front of May FOMC but ATH in unemployment claims for over $200k earners = far softer wage growth ahead. April 2023 rebalance "Granny shots" net -3 (+7, -10).

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  • Granny Shots April Quarterly rebalance today
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Equity markets came under selling pressure on Tuesday, falling 1.6% and breaking down to the lows seen in early April. Was there anything in particular this day to drive stocks to April lows? In our view, the May FOMC rate decision (5/3) is the most important event in the coming few weeks, so we are seeing incoming data through that lens.

Both VIX +11.1% to 18.7 and MOVE (bond volatility) +9% to 137 moved up sharply Tuesday, so markets were unnerved by something. The fact that First Republic $FRC fell 49% (bonds fell 22% to 40) underscores regional bank operating models are challenged as given the current level of interest rates. And private capital will be reluctant to step in. In recent meetings, several clients brought up the risk of the debt ceiling and the specific risks in this cycle given the slim Republican House margin (see Tom Block's comments on this earlier this week). The move in markets was also sufficient to move interest rates as 2Y (-13bp) and 10Y (-9bp) yields dropped sharply to 3.954% and 3.451%, respectively...

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