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US Equity markets still likely could make final downside push to 4300-4330, as trends remain negative and yields have not yet peaked.  However, risk/reward for being short is starting to become sub-par given the pullback to near oversold levels while breadth has neared levels near where Equities bottomed in March

US Equity indices haven’t yet given conclusive evidence of lows being at hand based on DeMark indicators along with Elliott wave patterns still suggesting a further mild decline could happen this week.

While compressed market breadth, near oversold conditions and a contraction in bullish sentiment are all constructive signs, there hasn’t yet been sufficient strength to break out above existing downtrends.

Technically, similar to interest rates largely ignoring cycles, sentiment, and trends pushing further into overbought territory, Equities very well could do the same on the downside before bottoming out into the end of August.

It’s not clear to me that cycles have to turn up this week ahead of Jackson Hole.  However, the 80-day SPX cycle shows a pronounced bounce starting into September, and I’m expecting that’s not too far off. 

At present, as the charts below of SPX and the...

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