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ETH Touches $3k as Tailwinds Align, Ethena Launch Generates Both Fanfare and Concern
Equity markets are under pressure this morning, with the QQQ and SPX indices dropping over 1% and approximately 0.70%, respectively. This downturn occurs amidst a backdrop of a declining DXY and lower rates, underscoring a continued decoupling between risk assets and the bond market since early January. The crypto market is also experiencing a pullback, following Bitcoin's premarket attempt to surpass the $53k mark and Ethereum's notable weekend achievement of...
BREAKING AWAY While we maintain that macro conditions are still the most critical factor in assessing the medium/long-term trajectory of BTC prices, daily returns of the leading cryptoasset continue to exhibit a lack of defined correlation with any major macro asset. To us, the biggest reason for this sustained lack of correlation is the advent of the spot BTC ETF. A prime example of how ETFs are influencing BTC's performance...
Monday morning picked up right where yesterday left off, with BTC -1.63% surging toward $50k, momentarily touching the key level across several exchanges. The rally appears to be driven by spot market demand, as evidenced by a significant spike in spot volume while funding rates remain muted (see chart below). A substantial portion of this volume is likely entering the market via spot ETFs chasing the positive weekend price action. Concurrently,...
WEATHERING THE STORM Heading into Q1, the key risks identified were: (1) A potential QRA supply shock, as long-term interest rates could surge due to a possible shift in bond issuance towards longer-duration securities, (2) the repricing of interest rate cuts, as the Federal Reserve downplayed expectations regarding the timing and frequency of such cuts, and (3) concerns regarding the dynamics between the expiration of the Reverse Repurchase Agreement (RRP)...
QRA IN LINE WITH MARKET EXPECTATIONS _THE RESULTS_ The Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement (QRA) was the first of two major macro events to transpire on Wednesday. Leading up to this, on Monday, there was an indication that the net borrowing for the current quarter would be $760 billion, which is $55 billion lower than the initial $815 billion estimate, and the total funding needs for Q2 would be just over...
THE GBTC PROBLEM We have been watching spot BTC ETF flows closely since their launch two weeks ago, and while overall net flows remain decidedly positive, the market seems hung up on GBTC outflows. As a reminder, the outflows we care the most about are those from entities that are not rotating into other spot BTC ETFs. This is comprised of some speculative capital that played the run-up into ETF...
Rabby Wallet Launches Points System, Rollbit and Faze Clan Announce Partnership
U.S. equity indices are flat on the day as the DXY (+0.39%) and U.S. Treasury yields are rising. The next important macroeconomic data point is the PCE Index, which will be released on Friday morning. Crypto markets are continuing to struggle, with BTC -1.63% (-1.10%) and ETH -0.18% (-4.71%) extending this weekâs declines. After surging following the Bitcoin ETF approval, ETHBTC (-3.61%) has given back some of its gains, contributing to the...
OUTLOOK OVERVIEW Thank you to everyone who joined our annual outlook call this week. We were fortunate to have a lot of success last year in helping our clients and subscribers navigate the crypto market and we look forward to leveling up again this year. For those who missed the outlook, the replay is now available, along with the deck, but a quick summary of our outlook is below.Big Takeaway:...
The cryptocurrency market is currently experiencing a downturn, falling 3% overall. Ethereum and select ecosystem projects are bucking the trend, with ETH -0.18% relatively flat in the last day, trading 0.2% lower at ~$2.6k and hitting a two-month high against Bitcoin as ETHBTC reaches 0.059. Outperformers in the top 100 include ETH NFT marketplace BLUR 11.44% (+8.7%), layer-two OP -1.46% (+6.8%), and ETH domain service ENS -2.57% (5.2%). In contrast, BTC -1.63% is noticeably underperforming,...
INITIAL THOUGHTS ON ETF LAUNCHES The past week has marked a pivotal moment in the evolution of the crypto industry, a testament to the remarkable journey of an asset class that emerged from a distrubuted community of open source software developers just 15 years ago. This was evidenced by the successful launch of all 11 eligible Bitcoin ETFs on Thursday morning. Assessing the success of an ETF launch is a...
QUICK RECAP First and foremost, we would like to extend a Happy New Year to all our clients and subscribers. The past year was indeed eventful, marked by banking crises, significant court victories, and BlackRock's foray into the sector – truly a remarkable journey. Our Core Strategy, though it lagged behind the King, performed well. This was particularly supported by the strong performance of our altcoin basket in Q4. We...
