Binance Enforcement Provides Dip-Buying Opportunity as Global Liquidity Continues to Improve
Binance Risk Mitigated
One of the most significant idiosyncratic risks in the crypto market has been the uncertainty surrounding Binance and potential action from the Justice Department against the world's leading exchange. Earlier this year, we anticipated that any disciplinary actions would likely involve criminal charges against Changpeng Zhao (CZ) and a fine against the exchange.
From our September note:
Today, these views were realized. CZ appeared in court to plead guilty to money laundering charges. He will retain majority ownership of the company but will step down as CEO. Additionally, Binance will plead guilty and pay a $4.3 billion fine, resolving the investigation into allegations of money laundering, bank fraud, and sanctions violations.
As previously noted, this development could cause short-term price weakness. However, it mitigates a longstanding perceived risk in the industry. Many potential market participants have been hesitant to engage in crypto due to uncertainties surrounding Binance and its significant industry influence. Moreover, the Department of Justice has emphasized that the agreement is structured to avoid harming Binance's customers and the broader crypto market, maintaining operational stability. This is the optim...Reports you haven't read
BREAKING AWAY While we maintain that macro conditions are still the most critical factor in assessing the medium/long-term trajectory of BTC prices, daily returns of the leading cryptoasset continue to exhibit a lack of defined correlation with any major macro asset. To us, the biggest reason for this sustained lack of correlation is the advent of the spot BTC ETF. A prime example of how ETFs are influencing BTC's performance...
WEATHERING THE STORM Heading into Q1, the key risks identified were: (1) A potential QRA supply shock, as long-term interest rates could surge due to a possible shift in bond issuance towards longer-duration securities, (2) the repricing of interest rate cuts, as the Federal Reserve downplayed expectations regarding the timing and frequency of such cuts, and (3) concerns regarding the dynamics between the expiration of the Reverse Repurchase Agreement (RRP)...
QRA IN LINE WITH MARKET EXPECTATIONS _THE RESULTS_ The Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement (QRA) was the first of two major macro events to transpire on Wednesday. Leading up to this, on Monday, there was an indication that the net borrowing for the current quarter would be $760 billion, which is $55 billion lower than the initial $815 billion estimate, and the total funding needs for Q2 would be just over...
THE GBTC PROBLEM We have been watching spot BTC ETF flows closely since their launch two weeks ago, and while overall net flows remain decidedly positive, the market seems hung up on GBTC outflows. As a reminder, the outflows we care the most about are those from entities that are not rotating into other spot BTC ETFs. This is comprised of some speculative capital that played the run-up into ETF...
Articles Read 1/1
🎁 Unlock 1 extra article by joining our Community!
You’ve reached your limit of 1 free monthly articles. Please enter your email to unlock 1 more articles.
Already have an account? Sign In 317d40-6feafd-b795a9-db6ccd-fc0f0f
Already have an account? Sign In 317d40-6feafd-b795a9-db6ccd-fc0f0f