Crypto Weekly
- Crypto Weekly
ANNUAL OUTLOOK RECAP Yesterday, we held our annual outlook call, in which we discussed the carnage of 2022 and reasons to be optimistic about 2023. Below are some highlights, but we invite you to review the entire deck and watch the webinar. BOTTOM IS IN...
- Crypto Weekly
Market Trips on LSDs
CARNAGE GIVES WAY TO INDIFFERENCE There are few cohorts of people more excited to turn the page to a new year than crypto investors. After nearly 12 months of unwinding leverage, we have finally reached a point in the cycle where indifference has crept into the market, as demonstrated by...
- Crypto Weekly
Volatility Takes a Holiday Vacation
ONTO NEXT YEAR Our last weekly strategy note of the year is going to be a brief one. I want to thank everyone for turning to us for timely and actionable research on crypto throughout this year. It was undoubtedly a trying time for the industry. We witnessed a period...
- Crypto Weekly
Asymmetries
DCG UPDATE _LEVERAGE UNWIND RECAP_ Clearly, the most challenging part of analyzing cryptoassets this year has been the opaque parts – the lending, borrowing, trading, and siphoning of assets that have occurred off-chain. This year, we have seen a deleveraging event throughout the global crypto market spurred on by the...
- Crypto Weekly
Outflows Persist, L2s Shine
REALIZED CAP HIGHLIGHTS CONTINUED OUTFLOWS Realized capitalization is an important metric we have frequently referenced in prior notes. It values the network based on the price at which each bitcoin was last exchanged. It is a way to calculate the overall cost basis of all $BTC holders and, consequently, is...
- Crypto Weekly
Adjusting to a Post-FTX World
ADJUSTING TO A POST-FTX WORLD A couple of weeks ago, we discussed several critical risk vectors remaining in the market and provided our take on each matter. Our near-term view was that it was more likely than not that most of the contagion from the implosion of FTX had been...
- Crypto Weekly
Looking For Contagion
MAPPING POSSIBLE CONTAGION Recently, we have discussed the risk of further drawdowns from the fallout from FTX as the reason for not being too aggressive at these admittedly favorable long-term entry levels. In this week’s note, we wanted to further unpack a few areas of the market where contagion could...
- Crypto Weekly
FTX Fallout Continues – Brace for Impact
A FLOCK OF BLACK SWANS Unless you have been off the grid for the past week, you likely are familiar with the shockingly abrupt implosion of FTX. For those just entering the fold, to make a long story short – Sam Bankman Fried (SBF) allegedly stole an estimated $4 billion...
- Crypto Weekly
Initial Takeaways from the Implosion of FTX
SBF VS. CZ As we addressed in our daily note on Monday, one thing few can argue is that crypto always keeps things interesting. As many know by now, two industry giants, FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) and Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ), sparred over the weekend following circulating rumors...
- Crypto Weekly
World Cup Trade Ideas
IDIOSYNCRATIC OPPORTUNITIES ABOUND The euphoric part of the bull market for crypto was largely about finding the fastest horse paired with one’s relative risk appetite. Unfortunately, in a bear market, most horses, notably the weaker or tired ones, no longer want to race. However, the past few months have revealed...
- Crypto Weekly
Much Wow
COINS DO NOT CARE ABOUT EPS As we have addressed over the past month, cryptoassets were nonreactive to the onslaught of gruesome tech earnings this week. At the time of writing, bitcoin, ether, and the rest of the crypto ecosystem have vastly outpaced the Nasdaq. As we can see below,...