Tue November 28, 2023

Crude should begin to lift, while TNX nears support after big decline

NEAR-TERM TRENDS FOR US EQUITIES ARE BULLISH AND SHOULD REQUIRE CONSOLIDATION IN THE WEEKS TO COME FOLLOWING THEIR SHARP RALLIES FROM OCTOBER LOWS.  TREASURY YIELDS AND US DOLLAR SHOULD BE...

Thu November 16, 2023

Crude Oil begins its descent into late November OPEC meeting

NEAR-TERM TREND FOR US EQUITIES IS BULLISH, BUT GETTING EXTENDED AS PART OF NEGATIVE MOMENTUM CONDITIONS ON WEEKLY AND MONTHLY CHARTS.  TREASURY YIELDS AND US DOLLAR MIGHT WEAKEN INTO US...

Tue November 7, 2023

Crude breakdown kicks off Nov decline and weakness possible until late month – Selectivity important

SPX AND QQQ HAVE SURGED ON ABOVE-AVERAGE BREADTH AND HAVE CARVED OUT IMPULSIVE RALLIES OVER THE PAST WEEK.  THIS IS LIKELY A POSITIVE FOR GAINS TO NEAR EARLY OCTOBER HIGHS...

Fri September 15, 2023

ECB makes dovish turn, risk rallies… a harbinger to when that day arrives for Fed. Removing tactical OW of regional banks.

We discuss: It’s been a data heavy week, but the big news is ECB yesterday and it’s dovish impact on bond markets. Please click below to view today’s Macro Minute (Duration:...

Mon September 11, 2023

Important week ahead, and we expect August CPI (9/13) of +0.20% core or less to further reduce odds of a Nov hike, a positive for equities. Even as UAW strike looms.

We discuss: An important week lies ahead, most notably August CPI on 9/13 but also $AAPL debut and potential UAW strike.  That said, we still view Sept as front-loaded on...

Fri September 8, 2023

Headwinds now, but expect tailwinds to prevail in Sept. Upward revisions in profits strongest argument against recession.

We discuss: How headwinds of VIX, yields, apprehension are growing.  But tailwinds are emerging this month as well.  The most notable is EPS revisions inflected positive and along with other...

Tue September 5, 2023

OIH and XOP favored within Energy as Supply cuts help boost Crude

US EQUITY MARKETS HAVE STALLED OUT GIVEN US TREASURY YIELDS HAVING TURNED BACK UP SHARPLY; GIVEN RECENT CORRELATION TRENDS, THIS MIGHT PERSIST THIS WEEK BEFORE STOCK INDICES RALLY BACK.  ENERGY...

Wed August 30, 2023

Energy likely outperforms in September

US EQUITIES HAVE NOW RETRACED MORE THAN 61.8% OF PRIOR DECLINE FROM LATE JULY AND HAVE SHOWN NO EVIDENCE OF TURNING DOWN.  YIELDS HAVE SLOWED THEIR DESCENT, WHILE THE US...

Wed August 9, 2023

Energy still strengthening, while Natural Gas has finally broken out

MARKETS HAVE ENTERED A WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL LOW WHICH LIKELY HAPPENS BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  US DOLLAR AND US TREASURY YIELDS LOOK TO BE ON THE VERGE OF...

Wed July 12, 2023

INTRADAY ALERT: June CPI report shows downside break in inflation = future path of Fed hikes likely lower = supports stocks

NEW: SECTION (ABOVE) ADDED IDENTIFYING KEY RECOMMENDATIONS AND SUPER GRANNIES Today's June CPI was very good, showing a downside break in core inflation (core CPI) and hints of sustainable decline...

Wed July 12, 2023

The last two "meaningful" CPI positive surprises (Oct 2022 and Feb 2023) saw +4%-5% 5D rally = 180 to 225 points today. Thus, 100 point gain could be "low end" of a potential rally.

NEW: SECTION (ABOVE) ADDED IDENTIFYING KEY RECOMMENDATIONS AND SUPER GRANNIES ________________________________________________ _TODAY'S NOTE WILL INCLUDE A SHORT VIDEO UPDATE. WE DISCUSS THAT OF THE LAST 8 CPI REPORTS, MARKETS HAD...

Tue July 11, 2023

Energy breakout makes this sector a lot more appealing

TREND BULLISH - EXPECT RALLY UP TO SPX 4550 INTO JULY EXPIRATION.  A LOWER THAN EXPECTED CPI PRINT COULD HELP SPX SURPASS 4458 WHICH WOULD HELP JUMPSTART THIS MOVE. Overall,...