First Word
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- Alert
INTRADAY ALERT: Equities over-reacting to "hot" Jan CPI. The 1Q24 top will be when "stocks sell off on good news" -- so today is not likely the top.
THIS INTRADAY ALERT IS SENT SOLELY TO CLIENTS OF FS INSIGHT Equites are selling off >1% today ($IWM off >3%) after Jan CPI came in "hot" vs consensus with Core CPI +0.39% (vs consensus +0.30%). Is this an over-reaction? Yes. Should investors buy this dip? Yes. We think this is...
- First Word
Equity markets near-term supported by "angry bears" but Jan CPI is important. Multiple factors still support upside though. 49ers win better for markets, FYI.
VIDEO: With S&P 500 at 5,000, we highlight the key drivers around markets and most remain supportive, except for the unknown leanings of the Fed in coming weeks Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:48). https://vimeo. com/912102451/b3338d44f9? share=copy The S&P 500 closed decisively above 5,000 in the...
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Case for even STRONGER 2024 emerging. Lunar New Year starts 2/10 and 2024 is Year of the Dragon. Since 1871, S&P 500 up 13% median gain = 5,350. Since 1979, Russell 2000 outperforms 88% of time.
VIDEO: Chinese new year starts 2/10 and 2024 is the year of the Dragon. Since 1871, equities do particularly well during the Dragon years, gaining 12%. And small-caps outperform 88% of the time. Please click below to watch our Macro Minute (duration: 4:04). https://vimeo. com/911414018/741790b18a? share=copy The S&P 500 touched...
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4Q23 EPS: 4 reasons EPS results are better than appears on surface, including potential China bottom.
VIDEO: We discuss 4 factors that suggest 4Q23 EPS season stronger than many realize. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 3:56). https://vimeo. com/910601604/8c4b44e130? share=copy This week will be the midpoint of 4Q23 EPS season (105 cos reporting). There have been several high profile EPS beats leading to massive...
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This week's gauntlet shows equity markets are getting stronger. Earnings visibility strengthening as 43% cos post >10% EPS growth.
VIDEO: We discuss how this week shows the equity markets are getting stronger, handling bad news with resilience and earnings visibility improving. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:27). https://vimeo. com/908883264/561a0ec9b5? share=copy The S&P 500 is up +0.31%, the 14th consecutive week of gains. This is a positive...
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January on track for >3% gain, solidifying 2024 to be positive (>92% probability) and suggests our 5,200 target might be low.
VIDEO: Even more important than FOMC or even macro this week is the Wed close. Jan is on track to be positive and it supports our case for 5200 or even much higher. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 4:37). https://vimeo. com/908043509/4531be521b? share=copy This week is a...
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Equities holding up despite -11% Tesla decline (8th largest stock) = sign of resilience. Dec Core PCE out on Friday. Tireless Ken sees downside print.
VIDEO: Dec Core PCE comes out Friday am. Tireless ken expects a Dec core PCE below consensus of +0.20. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (Duration: 4:39). https://vimeo. com/906504477/4e59800273? share=copy Tesla $TSLA is the 8th largest stock in the S&P 500 and fell -11% on Thursday following the release of...
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5 reasons we see market breadth improving in 2024 = favors small-caps and stock picking. SMID Granny Shots as well.
VIDEO: In the 11 prior instances of S&P 500 making all-time highs, further gains happened 6M later 10 of 11 times, but the durability of gains depends on recession (n=3). Also, we highlight the 5 factors for why market breadth should expand in 2024 (duration: 5:16). https://vimeo. com/905795092/a736b7549b? share=copy In...
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Since 1950, reaching all-time highs after a 20% decline led to 6M gains 11 of 11 times. And 18M sustained gains 7 of 11 times. Affirming 2024 constructive outlook. Don't give up on small-caps
VIDEO: We discuss how small-caps remain attractive at 1999 lows. And on broader markets, reaching an all-time high led to further gains 7 of 11 times. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (Duration: 5:59). https://vimeo. com/905048153/e0dac9e35c? share=copy The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high Friday (1/19) bringing its gains...
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Equities manage to claw back to flat YTD, and we still expect new highs by late-Jan. This, however, is not a risk-on signal.
It may be hard to believe, but the S&P 500 is actually slightly positive YTD (+0.20%). The Nasdaq 100 is up modestly (+0.8%) and the Russell 2000 is down -5%. Given the rough start to 2024, the last 2 days have brought on modest improvements.Many things have buffeted markets in...
