Mon January 22

Since 1950, reaching all-time highs after a 20% decline led to 6M gains 11 of 11 times. And 18M sustained gains 7 of 11 times.  Affirming 2024 constructive outlook.  Don't give up on small-caps

VIDEO: We discuss how small-caps remain attractive at 1999 lows.  And on broader markets, reaching an all-time high led to further gains 7 of 11 times. Please click below to...

Fri January 19

Equities manage to claw back to flat YTD, and we still expect new highs by late-Jan. This, however, is not a risk-on signal.

It may be hard to believe, but the S&P 500 is actually slightly positive YTD (+0.20%). The Nasdaq 100 is up modestly (+0.8%) and the Russell 2000 is down -5%....

Wed January 10

Takeaways from Dan Ives fireside chat = Technology lots of visibility. 2024 still likely double-digit gains and "hot" Dec CPI on Thursday likely priced in

We are only 6 trading days into 2024, and it has been a rough start. Even yesterday, on the potential approval of a Bitcoin Spot ETF approval, there appears to...

Fri January 5

INTRADAY ALERT: Solid Dec Jobs report adds concerns Fed "higher for longer" and adds to misery of early 2024. Just a reminder 1H24 is likely tough.

The first 4 trading days of 2024 have been a terrible start for equities with S&P 500 ($SPY) down -1.6% and the Russell 2000 (small-caps, $IWM) down -3.5%. As our...

Tue January 2

We expect 2024 to be strong and a strong Dec 23 bodes well for strong Jan + Feb

We discuss: We discuss how strong Decembers tend to lead to strong Jan and Feb.  And the year tends to play out in the first 5 days. Please click below...

Fri December 29, 2023

New all-time S&P 500 highs likely in January (if not Friday 12/29). However, 4 reasons we then see a pullback around Feb/March 2024. Small-caps likely lead in 1H24.

We discuss: To us, it is only a matter of days before we make new all-time highs.  But then we likely consolidate.  Small-caps likely outperform in 1H24.  We discuss the...

Fri December 22, 2023

Weekly Win Streak at Eight as Lee Remains Constructive

’Tis the season for holiday parties, and this week Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee related his anecdotal experience at the parties this season: “In my conversations, I’ve found that...

Fri December 22, 2023

INTRADAY ALERT: Nov Core PCE +0.06% vs +0.20% Street shows inflation glide path lower. Sustains case for YE equity rally.

The Nov Core PCE Deflator was released today and came in at +0.06% MoM, inline with tireless Ken's +0.07% and well below Street consensus of +0.20%.The key takeaway is that...

Fri December 22, 2023

Nov Core PCE Friday am could be positive catalyst for "Santa Clause" rally. PS: S&P 500 valuation not expensive. ex-FAANG P/E 15.3X.

We discuss: how S&P 500 valuation is very reasonable as we enter 2024 and this is particularly notable when compared to the 2022 market peak. Please click below to view...

Mon December 18, 2023

YTD, 65% of large-cap fund managers trailing but only 47% of small-cap funds missing. Add to YE chase potential. Important data is Nov PCE on Friday 12/22.

We discuss: It's holiday party season and we spoke to many institutional investors over the weekend.  Anecdotally, 66% remain bearish with bearish views on Fed. Plus we analyze fund manager...

Wed December 13, 2023

Markets anxious whether Fed makes "dovish" tones on Dec FOMC rate decision. Even if disappointing, we are buying the dip.

We discuss: Wed is probably most important catalyst between now and YE, with the Dec FOMC rate decision.  We think the key is whether it makes sense there are still...

Fri December 8, 2023

INTRADAY ALERT: Nov jobs report basically in-line, not enough to sway Fed hawkish into Dec FOMC.

The Nov jobs report released this am is overall benign with slightly more jobs added (+199k vs Street +185k) and details as well with unemployment rate dropping to 3.7% (vs...